Theory of Incremental Advantage

Science

Had a piece of mold not fallen into a petri dish left uncovered by Sir Alexander Fleming, penicillin would not have been discovered when it was. In the 1920s, Fleming was working to develop more effective antibiotics. Part of his work involved the microscopic examination of bacteria that had been artificially grown in petri dishes.By chance, the piece of mold that fell into the petri dish contained a substance that killed the type of bacteria in the dish. Fleming noticed the effect of the mold, was intrigued, and worked hard to identify the substance responsible for killing the bacteria. This antibiotic was to be called penicillin.

Rumors Caused the Berlin Wall to Come Tumbling Down

"A gentle tongue can break a bone." - Proverbs 25:15

The Berlin Wall was one of the most oppressive structures in history and was one of the last vestiges of the Cold War. The Berlin Wall had divided Berlin for almost thirty years. Rising up to fifteen feet high, it extended for 91 miles. The Wall was made of concrete, topped with barbed wire, and guarded by watchtowers, mines, and a special police force. The final generation of the Wall was lined with a smooth pipe at the top, intended to make it more difficult for escapees to scale it. It was reinforced by mesh fencing, signal fencing, anti-vehicle trenches, barbed wire, over 116 watchtowers which were strategically located to provide their marksmen with clear lines of fire, and 20 bunkers. According to official figures from the former East German government, 125 East Germans had been killed trying to cross it and escape into the West. However, prominent victims' groups claimed that 1,245 East Germans were killed in their attempt to breach the Wall. Thousands of others were captured in the attempt to escape East Germany via the Wall.

In the 1980s, East Germans began getting a taste of freedom by traveling abroad. Hungary's decision to open its borders to the West allowed East Germans to escape via Hungary. When Czechoslovakia opened its borders, thousands used this shorter route in a mass exodus for West Germany. Ronald Reagan's throwing down the gauntlet to Mikhail Gorbachev to "tear down this wall" on June 12, 1987 further invigorated the East Germans to clamor for freedom.

The Berlin Wall was not destroyed as a result of military might or the detonation of overwhelming explosive force. Rather the Berlin Wall was vanquished as a result of rumor, wishful thinking, a rashly delivered speech and flawed interpretation. It was the imprudent use of words that triggered a wave of humanity to overwhelm the East German border guards and make a thoroughfare of the Wall.

Gerd Gigerenzer summarized the events that immediately led to the destruction of the Berlin Wall in Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious:

On November 9, 1989, the East German government announced new guidelines for traveling outside of the country. The new guidelines only promised that the process of applying for a passport and then a visa would be accelerated. At 6:00 p.m., Gunter Schabowski, the new secretary of the East German Central Committee for Media Politics, held an hour-long press conference, only mentioning the new guidelines at the very end. An Italian journalist asked when the new regulations would be effective. Schabowski missed the government meeting where these issues had been discussed and did not know. He looked at his sheet of paper and then said "right now", immediately. At 7:00 p.m., he ended the conference.

Whereas most reporters saw little reason for excitement, an Italian journalist rushed out and, shortly afterward, his agency spread the news that "the Wall fell." This report had no backing from what Schabowski said. Simultaneously, an American reporter who did not understand German interpreted the translation of the conference as meaning that the Wall was now open, and NBC broadcast that from tomorrow morning on, East Germans could traverse the Berlin Wall without any restrictions. At 8:00 p.m., the West German TV news, under time pressure, summarized the press conference in their own words, and Schabowski was shown saying "right now, immediately." At the end of the report, the headline "East Germany Opens Border" was added. Other news agencies entered this contest in wishful thinking and mistakenly reported that the border was already open.

The rumor spread to the West German parliament in Bonn, which happened to be meeting at that time. Deeply moved, the representatives stood up and began to sing the German national anthem. The East Germans who were watching West German television were more than willing to engage in the wishful thinking seeded by the news. Thousands and soon tens of thousands of East Berliners jumped into their cars or walked to the border crossings to the West. Yet the guards had, of course, no orders to open the border. Angry citizens demanded what they believed was their new right of way and the guards first refused. Yet in the face of an avalanche of citizens physically pushing them, an officer at one crossing eventually opened the barriers, fearing that his men would otherwise be trampled to death. Soon all the crossings were open. Despite the East German government having prepared thousands of body bags and make shift concentration camps for the leaders of the freedom movement, not a shot was fired, no blood spilled.

Hitler's Name Could Easily Have Been Schnickelgruber

Adolf Hitler's father, Alois, changed his surname from Schnickelgruber to Hitler before Adolf was born. Had this name change not have occurred, the Third Reich most likely would not have occurred. It is hard to image a nation rallying behind someone with such a funny-sounding name or that they would have chanted "Heil Schnickelgruber".

You Never Know Who the Next President Will Be

As William J. Bennett points out, "If you were sitting at Franklin D. Roosevelt's inauguration in 1933, and someone told you the next president would be a little-known judge in Jackson County, Missouri, with just a high school education, you would have been made to look like a fool." However, Harry Truman elevated his career from a county judge to the President of the United States in just 12 years.

Dog Saves Presidential Candidate's Career

During the 1952 Presidential campaign, Eisenhower's campaign was almost derailed when it was revealed that his running mate, Dick Nixon, had been supported by a "secret fund" raised for him by a small circle of California businessmen. Nixon went on national television to defend himself. He gave a tearful performance, praising his wife. Most effective, however, was Nixon's defiant refusal to return to donors the gift of a little dog. His young daughters loved the dog they named "Checkers." Nixon's "Checkers" speech saved his political life.

Attacking the Enemy on Saturday Nights Yielded an Incremental Advantage

Adolph Hitler made a practice of attacking his enemies on Saturday nights. 'The Night of the Long Knives' in which the Nazis murdered as many as 400 of their opponents in Munich occurred on a Saturday night. Hitler chose to attack on Saturday nights when his troops marched into the Rhineland in 1936 and into Austria on March 12, 1938. He anticipated a delayed reaction as he knew how the British statesmen loved their weekends at their country estates.

Separately, World War II would have transpired much differently had the French demonstrated a bit of resolve when attached by the Germans. This is because the Germans had orders to withdraw had the French resisted the invasion of the Rhineland.

How Would History Have Changed if President Truman Was Assassinated?

Not at all. President Truman may have made more pivotal decisions that impacted world history than any other American president.

• President Truman was the president when the Allied Powers achieved victory over Germany in World War II. It was he under his leadership that the Nuremberg Trials took place.
• He authorized the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and accepted the surrender of Japan to end World War II.
• He worked towards the founding of the United Nations and NATO, recognized the birth of Israel, implemented the Marshall Plan to rebuild Europe, and orchestrated the Berlin Airlift.
• Harry Truman devised the Truman Doctrine to contain Communism and presided over the beginning of the Cold War and the Korean War.
• Millions of veterns went to college on the G.I. Bill which was backed by the Truman administration.

Two Puerto Rican nationalists--Oscar Collazo and Griselio Torresola--attempted to assassinate President Truman on November 1, 1950.

However, not all assassination attempts on Presidents’ lives would have changed history, even if they killed the president. All of the tumultuous events that occurred during President Truman's administration preceded the assassination attempt.

The United States Almost Missed Gaining Rights to the Panama Canal

President Theodore Roosevelt was an ardent proponent of the Panama Canal. In November of 1903, Panamanian rebels proclaimed their independence from Colombia. The Colombian Senate had recently rejected a treaty that would have allowed the United States to construct and operate a canal through the isthmus in Panama. The presence of a large American naval task force, conveniently in the area, prevented Colombian troops from putting down the rebellion. The new Republic of Panama quickly endorsed a treaty granting the U.S. rights to the canal zone. President Roosevelt was widely and acerbically condemned for these actions in the press and in Congress.

During much of criticism, President Roosevelt was confined to a wheelchair following a near-fatal streetcar accident. In September 1902, in Pittsfield, Massachusetts, a streetcar had struck President Theodore Roosevelt’s open carriage, knocking him to the street. The accident killed Roosevelt’s Secret Service man, Bill Craig, the first agent to die while guarding a President.

Had the near fatal accident taken the life of President Roosevelt, the United States would probably not have won rights to the Panama Canal. This would have severely restricted America’s ability to trade with the rest of the world.

President-Elect Franklin Roosevelt was Almost Assassinated

As President-elect in 1933, Franklin Roosevelt had almost been killed by a gunman in Miami. Giuseppe Zangara fired five shots at Roosevelt's motorcade. Four people were wounded in the attack and the mayor of Chicago, Anton Cermak, was killed. Had Franklin Roosevelt been assassinated, how long would the Great Depression have lasted? Would the power dynamics of the unions have remained emasculated? Would child labor continue to be exploited? When would the U.S. have entered World Ward II? How many lives could have been lost or saved? When would the federal government have created agencies such as the FDIC, TVA, and the SEC? How long would America have had to wait for the creation of the Social Security system? The minimum wage? United Nations?

One Vote Could Have Cost America its Sovereignty

In the 1790s, there was a major risk of the young American republic going to war against the United Kingdom. In the spring of 1794, the British were arming Indians and spurring them to attack Americans trying to settle the new frontier lands that would one day include Ohio and Michigan. London was reneging on its pledge to vacate royal forts in the trans-Appalachian West – Oswego, Niagara, Detroit, and Michilimackinac. British captains seized U.S. ships trading with the French West Indies.

Some senior government officials, such as Thomas Jefferson who was the Secretary of State, demanded retaliation against the British. Alexander Hamilton, Secretary of the Treasury, believed that America must not engage in a war that it could not win. In late 1794 and early 1795, President George Washington sent Chief Justice John Jay to negotiate a resolution to this crisis with the British.

What came to be known as the Jay treaty placated the British by severely limiting America’s ability to export its merchandise. The Jay treaty immediately became extremely divisive.

When the House finally voted on funding Jay’s Treaty, the result was a 49 to 49 tie. Chairing a Committee of the Whole, the tiebreaker would be Republican Frederick Muhlenberg, a German-speaking Lutheran pastor from Pennsylvania. After Muhlenberg voted in favor of the treaty, Muhlenberg’s brother-in-law stabbed him.

Had Frederick Muhlenberg voted against the Jay Treaty, America would have been off to war that would almost certainly have cost it its independence.