Theory of Incremental Advantage

Putting on Glasses Averted a Coup D'Etat

The American army was starving and barely clothed in 1783. Congress took a long time to decide whether to send supplies to the dying forces. Pamphlets circulated in the Army camps urging the army to march on Congress to enforce its legitimate demands at the point of a bayonet. When George Washington put on his glasses and said to his troops “Gentlemen, you will permit me to put on my spectacles, for I have not only grown gray but almost blind in the service of my country,” the battle-hardened veterans were clearly moved and a military coup d’etat was averted.

Winston Churchill Was Nearly Killed in 1909

Martin Gilbert wrote that Winston Churchill was attacked by a young woman brandishing a dog whip as he accompanied his wife to the train station in 1909. The woman struggled with Churchill and tried to throw him in front of an oncoming train. Clementine, Winston's wife, beat the assailant off with her umbrella. The world would certainly not have been the same without Winston Churchill.

How Would History Have Changed if President Truman Was Assassinated?

Not at all. President Truman may have made more pivotal decisions that impacted world history than any other American president.

• President Truman was the president when the Allied Powers achieved victory over Germany in World War II. It was he under his leadership that the Nuremberg Trials took place.
• He authorized the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and accepted the surrender of Japan to end World War II.
• He worked towards the founding of the United Nations and NATO, recognized the birth of Israel, implemented the Marshall Plan to rebuild Europe, and orchestrated the Berlin Airlift.
• Harry Truman devised the Truman Doctrine to contain Communism and presided over the beginning of the Cold War and the Korean War.
• Millions of veterns went to college on the G.I. Bill which was backed by the Truman administration.

Two Puerto Rican nationalists--Oscar Collazo and Griselio Torresola--attempted to assassinate President Truman on November 1, 1950.

However, not all assassination attempts on Presidents’ lives would have changed history, even if they killed the president. All of the tumultuous events that occurred during President Truman's administration preceded the assassination attempt.

The United States Almost Missed Gaining Rights to the Panama Canal

President Theodore Roosevelt was an ardent proponent of the Panama Canal. In November of 1903, Panamanian rebels proclaimed their independence from Colombia. The Colombian Senate had recently rejected a treaty that would have allowed the United States to construct and operate a canal through the isthmus in Panama. The presence of a large American naval task force, conveniently in the area, prevented Colombian troops from putting down the rebellion. The new Republic of Panama quickly endorsed a treaty granting the U.S. rights to the canal zone. President Roosevelt was widely and acerbically condemned for these actions in the press and in Congress.

During much of criticism, President Roosevelt was confined to a wheelchair following a near-fatal streetcar accident. In September 1902, in Pittsfield, Massachusetts, a streetcar had struck President Theodore Roosevelt’s open carriage, knocking him to the street. The accident killed Roosevelt’s Secret Service man, Bill Craig, the first agent to die while guarding a President.

Had the near fatal accident taken the life of President Roosevelt, the United States would probably not have won rights to the Panama Canal. This would have severely restricted America’s ability to trade with the rest of the world.

President Lincoln Was Almost Assassinated Before the Civil War Concluded

One night in August 1864, President Lincoln was riding from the White House to the Soldiers’ Home. According to his bodyguard, Ward Hill Lamon, a bullet pierced and knocked off the President’s stovepipe hat. This bullet entered President Lincoln’s hat four inched above the brim. Had the bullet landed four inches below the brim, the Civil War could have turned out very differently.

The Titanic Almost Avoided Catastrophe

Had the Titanic traveled one mile an hour faster, it would have missed fatally colliding with the iceberg. If the crew had seen the iceberg 10 seconds sooner, the ship would have missed it. If the crew had seen the iceberg ten seconds later, they would have hit it head on, causing damage which would not have sunk the ship. The ship sank because it grazed the iceberg, slicing open a long section of its side.

World Leaders Narrowly Escape Death

If the bullet that struck Ronald Reagan on March 30, 1981, was just one inch closer to his heart, the Berlin Wall might not have fallen and the Soviet Empire may not have collapsed. President Reagan's policies, while controversial at the time, indisputeably caused the earthshattering events that concluded the Cold War. For instance, President Reagan's National Security Decision Directive (NSDD)-32 provided the basis for several years of covert support to Poland's Solidarity movement, which was located in the center of the Soviet Empire and was dedicated to its destruction. On November 29, 1982, Reagan signed NSDD-66, which established "the security-minded principles that will govern east-west economic relations for the remainder of this decade and beyond." It made disruption of the Soviet economy--by denying it financial support, access to high technology, and international assistance to complete a natural-gas pipeline--the stated goal of U.S. policy. Roger Robinson, the National Security Council aide who drafted NSDD-66, described it as "tantamount to a secret declaration of economic war against the Soviet Union." NSDD-75 was signed on January 17, 1983 and committed the United States to not simply containing but reversing Soviet expansionism by, among other things, promoting "the process of change in the Soviet Union toward a more pluralistic political and economic system." What was devastating to the Soviet economy was President Reagan's successful effort to lower the price of oil by working with the Saudis to hugely increase supply. Oil generated 80% of the Soviet Union's hard-currency earnings. When the price of oil dropperd from $30 per barrel in 1985 to $12 per barrel, the effect on the Soviet economy, whcih was already approaching zero annual growth, was devastating. The Reagan Doctrine supported counter-Soviety guerrilla movements in Third World Soviet client states such as Afghanistan, Nicaragua, and Angola. Finally, Reagan's Strategic Defense Initiative convinced the Soviets that they could not afford an arms race with the United States.

On December 1931 Winston Churchill was in New York City on an American lecture tour. On December 13, he took a taxi from the Waldorf-Astoria Hotel to Bernard Baruch's home on 5th Avenue. Upon arriving at his destination, the future prime minister of Great Britain looked the wrong way and was run down by another New York taxicab. His injuries were so severe that he was taken immediately to Lenox Hill Hospital. He was not well enough to leave New York until December 31.

On November 14, 1943, President Roosevelt was crossing the Atlantic on the USS Iowa on his way to an Allied Summit in Tehran. The escort ship USS William D. Porter accidentally fired a torpedo during a drill. The torpedo exploded just 100 meters off the USS Iowa’s stern. Had the torpedo hit the USS Iowa, the history of the world could have been very different.